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Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny said that if Republican candidate Trump wins the US Presidential Election on November 5, the dollar and the US stock market could rise, at least at first. Trump said in an interview with the media last week that there is a higher risk that he will raise tariffs faster than during his first presidency. However, the dollar's nearly 4% gain in October suggests that this has been digested and could limit the dollar's gains. If Trump wins, the euro could fall bel...
Derek Halpenny, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ, said the dollar was unlikely to continue falling even if the Fed hinted that a rate cut could come soon. Recent price movements suggest that the link between Treasury yields and the exchange rate is decoupling, while fragile risk appetite supports demand for safe-haven assets such as the dollar. Therefore, any dollar depreciation caused by the signal of a rate cut will not last long, especially if the September rate cut has been fully digested by the...
